December 3^rd, 2009 brought a dark day to a country which had precious little hope to begin with.

That Thursday, at the Hotel Shamo in Somalia’s capital city of Mogadishu, began with what was supposed to have been a glimmering of a better future; a graduation ceremony for Benadir University’s class of 2009. These doctors, health workers, and engineers, whose impoverished and war-torn country desperately needs their abilities, were one of the first graduating classes in almost twenty years. Hundreds of people had crammed into the hotel to watch them receive their diplomas. Then, when the ceremony neared its end, a man who had disguised himself in concealing women’s clothing blew himself up. At least twenty-five people died; nineteen students, two reporters, and three important ministers of Somalia’s embattled interim government. Dozens of others were also injured in the attack.

The immediate suspect was the radical Islamist insurgent group Al-Shabab, which initially denied involvement; a few days after the attack, however, a spokesman for the group claimed responsibility for the the bombing. Al-Shabab wishes to impose a radical, oppressive interpretation of Shari’a, or Islamic law, on the country, similar to the Taliban’s former regime in Pakistan. And to do so, they wish to utterly destroy the current, more moderate UN-recognized government, regardless of who stands in their path; the December Third bombing was organized to attack the government by assassinating the government officials present at the ceremony.

Somalia’s current government is lead by President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, but it only has control over parts of the capital city of Mogadishu. The government is almost entirely reliant on military and humanitarian support from the African Union and other international agencies. Ahmed’s government, ruled by a moderate and relatively tolerant interpretation of Islamic law, is considered the most progressive government the country has seen in decades and Somalia’s best hope for stability by some US officials, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. However, even that best hope is considered very slim. Former Pentagon worker Mr. Mark Safford, from Wakefield, Rhode Island, holds that the chances of President Ahmed’s government bringing unity or stability are essentially slim to none. He sees the ideological struggles between Al-Shabab’s oppressive Shari’a and Ahmed’s more tolerant interpretation, as merely a new overlay on an old and vicious cycle of violence. “As in other areas of turmoil,” Mr. Safford commented, “tribal/ethnic factionalism and political/religious radicalism tend to reinforce each other.”

Conflict is, sadly, nothing new to the Somali people; according to Mr. Safford, the country has been in near constant warfare since the fall of Soviet-backed dictator Siad Barre, with a fundamentalist Islamic movement waging civil war against each successor government. “Essentially,” he says,  “The government of Somalia ceased to exist as a functioning entity around 1993, and the nation is still in chaos today.” Ahmed’s regime is on fairly good terms with the United States; he has visited America and met with the Secretary of State, opportunities that would never have been offered to his numerous dictatorial predecessors. However his government is heavily embattled by a host of different competing factions, many of which have personal enmities with Ahmed or his subordinates, and the government has effectively no real power. It is also unlikely that the government would be able to win back control of Somalia in the foreseeable future. John Hughes, a history teacher at Rocky Hill School, stated that “If [the government] can’t continue to exist without outside support, I don’t see how it could gain any support amongst the country unless it started to make alliances with other groups that… might not be acceptable to its foreign supporters.” This latest bombing served to underscore that powerlessness, striking as it did in what was supposed to be the government’s sole bastion of relative security.

While violence may be nothing new to Somalia, attacks like the one on December Third are; suicide bombers were practically unheard of in the country before 2007. Now however, radical Islamists don’t simply learn to become insurgents; they are taught how to become terrorists, and they are being taught by Al Quaeda itself.

Al-Shabab, in particular, has significant ties with the Afghan terrorist organization. In TIME magazine, Nuruddin Dirie, a Somalia analyst and former presidential candidate for one of its independent regions, stated that “The Shabaab are a hard-core al-Qaeda group, and they are really establishing a foothold and deepening their bases in Somalia...We knew they would target the government officials, but a hotel setting, targeting the graduating students, it tells us quite a lot about how ruthless, how uncaring this enemy is." Although they initially denied responsibility in fear of the public backlash caused by the immense number of civilian casualties, Al-Shabab has been quick to claim responsibility for other prominent anti-government suicide bombings in the past.

This represents an ominous threat for more than just the Somalis who stand to suffer as the collateral damage of ruthless Al-Shabab attacks. Al-Quaeda is infamous as one of the most vehement enemies of Western countries, particularly of America, and as the plotters of the September 11^th attacks. The simple fact that Al-Quaeda has reached beyond the middle east and established strong ties with groups like Al-Shabab, supplying them more advanced training and technology, is sobering in and of itself. But beyond that, Al-Shabab represents a frightening opportunity for Al-Quaeda.

By reaching out to the significant Somali-American communities around cities like Minneanapolis, Al-Shabab has managed to successfully recruit small numbers of American citizens to its cause. It is already responsible for the first and only known incidences of an American suicide bomber in all of history. News coverage of a foiled attempt by five Pakistani Americans to join a jihadist group brought the enormous potential dangers of terrorists with American citizenship into the public eye, yet Somalia has already made such terrorists a reality. While Al-Shabab’s American suicide bombers have only been employed against Sheikh Ahmed’s government so far, such operatives could easily be used against the United States. Even if the vehemently anti-American Al-Shabab turns out to have no real interest in attacking the United States, their Al Quaeda allies certainly do. If Al-Quaeda realizes the resource Al Shabab’s American recruits presents them, they could possibly exert their new influence to turn Al-Shabab into a convenient recruiting pool for terrorists with genuine American passports. “As much as the prospect makes us nervous,” Mr. Hughes commented, “this highlights the need for the government to keep a closer eye on these groups and the people they recruit from.” It also shows that even on the run, Al Quaeda is still dangerous. They are supposed to be too scattered to act against the United States directly, according to statements from the President and other government officials. Yet the example of Somalia shows that Al Quaeda is still able to threaten the western world and sow chaos in other nations, by building their influence over proxy groups such as Al-Shabab and training them to carry out attacks like the December 3rd suicide bombing.