1. Indianapolis: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: This is the easiest pick in the draft. With news about Peyton Manning having a 4th neck surgery during the season, Manning has sealed his fate with the Indianapolis Colts. He will not be paid the $28 million bonus he is due in March and was released early in the month. Lucky for them, (no pun intended) the best quarterback prospect since John Elway, or maybe ever, is available at number one overall. This is a quarterback league, and the Colts desperately need an elite quarterback to run the offensive system they have.
2. Cleveland (from St. Louis): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: The Rams have confirmed that they will trade this pick. I think Cleveland will get it over Washington because they have more 2 first round picks and Washington is more likely to get a quarterback via free agency. RG3 had an unbelievable Scouting Combine performance and has confirmed his spot as the second overall pick in the draft. Colt McCoy is not a franchise quarterback whereas Griffin could lead this team to the playoffs his rookie year.
3. Minnesota: Matt Kalil, OT, USC: The Vikings need a left tackle desperately to protect their young quarterback, Christian Ponder. Charlie Johnson, their current left tackle, is among the worst in the NFL and keeping Ponder upright and healthy is Minnesota’s number one priority. Also, Kalil is being touted as the best left tackle to enter the draft since Joe Thomas. Adding him would not only keep Ponder upright, but he would also open more holes for running back Adrian Peterson to run through when he recovers from his ACL injury.
4. St. Louis (from Cleveland): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: Sam Bradford needs a good receiver to work with as Brandon Lloyd appears to be heading to New England to play with his former coach Josh McDaniels. Prior to the trade for Lloyd, St. Louis’s offense was horrible and Bradford’s performance was down from his rookie season. Justin Blackmon is a game-changing wide receiver who draws comparisons to Terrell Owens and former Oklahoma State wide receiver Dez Bryant. Bradford will not reach his potential until he has better weapons to throw to, and this is a start.
5. Tampa Bay: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: Tampa Bay really regressed this year and a big reason was that their cornerbacks played much worse in 2011 than in 2010. To make matters worse, Ronde Barber could be retiring and Aqib Talib could be going to jail. Out of all the needs they have, cornerback is the most prevalent for them. Fortunately, Morris Claiborne is available, and he compares very well to Patrick Peterson, another former LSU corner now in the NFL. He was named the winner of the Jim Thorpe Award for the best defensive back in the nation this year, and he will help Tampa immediately.
6. Washington: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M: I know that this pick sounds crazy, but it is not uncommon to see reaches for quarterbacks in the top 10. Washington could sign Matt Flynn or Peyton Manning, but I can’t see either of them going there. They can’t afford to go with Rex Grossman next year, so they could go with the athletic Tannehill, whose mobility could work well in head coach Mike Shanahan’s offense. In a division with three franchise quarterbacks in Eli Manning, Michael Vick, and Tony Romo, Washington will need to take a risk with a quarterback if they want to compete next year.
7. Jacksonville: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina: Jacksonville really didn’t have much of a pass rush last season. In a division where they will have to compete against Andrew Luck, Matt Schaub, and Jake Locker for the next five years or so, they will need to put some pressure on the quarterback. Also, offensively, Jacksonville would much rather add a proven free agent wide receiver like Vincent Jackson as opposed to drafting risky Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd.
8. Miami: Reilly Reiff, OT, Iowa: Miami is the favorite to land Peyton Manning this off-season. However, because of his four neck surgeries in the past two years, they have to make sure he gets as good protection as possible. Mark Colombo, their starting right tackle, is horrendous. Reilly Reiff would be an instant upgrade, and he doesn’t have to play left tackle because Jake Long has that position locked up for at least the next decade. After a very good senior season, Reiff has demonstrated that he can be a solid tackle in the NFL.
9. Carolina: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis: Poe was without a doubt the best prospect at the NFL combine. At 346 pounds, he ran an official 4.98 40 yard dash time which is unbelievable for a player his size. Carolina’s largest need on their awful defense is nose tackle, and Poe could give them versatility to play in the 4-3 and the 3-4 because of his capabilities to play nose tackle.
10. Buffalo: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina: Buffalo in 2011 finished dead last in sacks, and no Bill had more than 5.5. With their transition back to the 4-3 base defense, Coples is the top defensive end on the board. He would upgrade their defense tremendously if he can play up to his potential.