The Arrowhead

Debating the debates: Who's ahead?

Monday, October 18, 2004 By Darrin Baker

Friday October 8th 2004 George W. Bush was hoping to get a small break in the tense battle with Kerry. According to a few forecasters the Labor Department is to record over 158,000 jobs across the nation added in the last month, which in the last four months would be the largest amount of jobs added, but even if the estimations fall a little short, the annual review should still boast over 2 million jobs added across America. Wisconsin fits in at number 16 with 48,800 jobs added over the last year. The steep loss of jobs in 2001 really decided people’s minds years before the Re-election vote were to come. But with the modest growth of the economy in the last year, people’s minds have become battlegrounds, separated between Senator John Kerry and President George W. Bush and who, out of the two holds more valid points. Richard Curtain, director of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, pointed out that normally two quarters before an election that the economic output tends to peak. And that the cause is often attributed to incumbents of Congress and the White House making sure to provide plenty of fiscal Stimulus. But looking at the levels in 2000, even though 2001 and on has good levels; they are down and noticeably so. Even consumer sentiment is low compared to 2000. Kerry and his surrogates will also keep the heat on Bush over his record on the federal budget, which has gone from a $236 billion surplus in 2000 to a record $422 billion this year. That extra $186 billion dollars was spent on supposed “pocketbook” expenses. With this spending deficit and “baby boomers” setting to retire in about 6 years, Congress and the rest of the government have their hands tied in findings ways to cover the entitlement programs. So in the end, this article and future ones to follow are information for that small group of people that plan to vote this year, because like me many of you are uniformed of any of this information. And I leave you with a comment from an economist on his opinion of why Bush may just win. “Bush can say the economy is growing, income is growing, the economy is creating jobs, unemployment is falling — all these things are true,” Patrick Anderson of Anderson Economic Group said. “And with those conditions, the model says the incumbent should be re-elected.”